Brent Crude Stuck Near $64/bbl as Rising Non-OPEC Supply Tests OPEC+ Discipline
IEA forecasts point to a 1.1 mb/d surplus next year, keeping oil range-bound between $60 and $68 despite geopolitical headlines.
Sophia Bennett
Head of Commodities Research · Vizyon Capital
Crude oil prices remain locked in a tight range, with Brent trading at $64.27 per barrel and WTI holding near $60.42. Fresh projections from the International Energy Agency signal a potential 1.1 million barrel-per-day global surplus in 2026 unless producers extend voluntary output curbs.
OPEC+ faces a familiar dilemma
Record production across the United States, Guyana, and Brazil continues to erode OPEC+'s market share. While coalition ministers remain reluctant to surrender additional barrels, unwinding cuts too quickly risks driving Brent below the $60 fiscal comfort threshold for key members.
Meanwhile, US commercial crude inventories climbed 3.2 million barrels last week as seasonal refinery maintenance curtailed throughput.
Sector winners
Sub-$65 oil acts as an immediate tax cut for global consumers, airlines, and petrochemical margins while easing headline inflation pressures for central banks. Vizyon Capital retains a $60–$68 Brent trading band over the next quarter.
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